The UK National Security Strategy is promised today, rapidly following the Defence Review. Are we going to be taking a big picture look at the long-term result of establishing a more peaceful world so we can, over time, spend ever less on front-line troops and flesh-crushing military hardware? So then we can spend more on securing that more peaceful world? Create the basis for the reality of a positive spiral?
When we are spending immense amounts of money to ‘keep our nation safe’ you would expect “Value for Money” thinking. Silly term though, let’s more sensibly call it strategic, wise and results-led thinking; what I call R2R – resources to results pathways. It’s a messy looking system of unknowns, risks and complex interactions. The obvious pathways aren’t always the best, or best value, ones.
Don’t let anyone say “why are you concerned with bean-counting when the safety of our nation is at risk”. Using the resources we have to get the results we truly want is central to whatever happens in government.
Troops and hardware are being greatly increased and spending rocketing, but do we have a strong and transparent strategic-eye on the trade-off where every bit of resource spent on fighting potential is unable to be spent on crucial steps towards reducing the need for military growth? That’s the trap, that’s (part of) the complexity of the feedback in the system.
We must work on better untangling the whole picture for peace and security to clarify the direction for the longer term. We need to see, incredibly clearly, how the money is being divided up to achieve that to get the right balance. There are early steps towards this in some Scandinavian countries and the EU Security Compass could help to point in the right direction.
It’s harsh to criticise the UK when across the world this kind of R2R strategic thinking is in its infancy and, of course, investment in maturing it is dwarfed by R&D in more “lethal” defence capability.
So, I will temper my criticism. Let’s just say it needs to be talked about more and clearly highlighted as the real priority. This is a call for the UK to be at the forefront of pushing such thinking to the next level with governance, technical and philosophical capability, systems and actions. Essentially, refocusing on peaceful long-term aims rather than risking being driven to lethality by numbers.
To get there we need to find an R2R pathway and resource allocation that recognises the reality of the world we are in, but also invests massively in pulling away from it to a better place. We are in a big suboptimal sink (to use mathematical complexity language) and to clamber out of it needs commitment and reflection. I hope this post is the next step for me – and for others. Get in touch if you want to discuss!
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/strategic-compass-eu-0_en
https://committees.parliament.uk/work/9201/the-national-security-strategy/publications/